The poster by the time clock in an Oakland kitchen or stockroom says $17.34. That is the city's minimum wage for 2026. On December 1, the City Council takes up a measure that would raise that number in steps to $30 an hour.
The measure is a citizen initiative, the "Oakland Living Wage For All Act of 2026." County elections officials found that it has enough valid signatures, and on October 22 the council's Rules and Legislation Committee scheduled it for the full council. The committee did not vote on the wage itself. Here is where things stand.
The council's three choices
When a city initiative qualifies, state law does not let a council rewrite it or set it aside. The council's agenda item lists the three things it may do:
- Adopt it as written. The initiative becomes a city ordinance without going to voters. The council may not change its text.
- Send it to voters. The measure would go on the ballot at the next general municipal election, on November 7, 2028, or at a special election held 88 to 103 days after the council calls it. Counted from December 1, that window runs from late February to mid-March 2027.
- Order a report first. The council may ask city staff for a report on the measure's effects, due within 30 days. State law lets that report cover the measure's fiscal impact, its effect on the city's ability to attract and keep businesses and jobs, and any other question the council names. Once the report is presented, the council has 10 days to adopt the measure or send it to voters. A report delays the decision. It does not replace it.
Oakland's council has eight members. Under the city charter, the mayor votes only when the council is evenly divided.
What the measure would require
The council's agenda describes the initiative as raising the minimum wage "to $30 for Oakland employees by July 1, 2037." Press accounts and the county's analysis of a companion measure describe three schedules, set by the size of the employer:
- Large employers (100 or more employees and more than $1 billion in annual revenue): $30 by 2030.
- Medium employers (26 to 99 employees, or larger employers under the revenue line): $30 by 2035.
- Small employers (25 or fewer employees): $30 by 2037.
After an employer's tier reaches $30, the wage would keep rising each July 1 by the Bay Area's consumer price index or 3 percent, whichever is greater.
The details below come from the companion measure written for unincorporated Alameda County, as summarized in the county's analysis. Organizers describe the two measures as nearly identical, but the Oakland text is the one that counts, and owners should read it when the city posts the December 1 agenda packet.
- First step. Under the county measure, the first increase comes on July 1, 2027: $19.90 for large employers, $18.38 for medium and $18.21 for small.
- Size is counted across the whole company. A chain store is sized by its parent company's total employees and revenue, not by the one location.
- Two groups are named. Janitorial workers would follow the large-employer schedule whatever the size of their employer. Family childcare workers would follow the small-employer schedule.
- No offsets. Employers could not pay for the raise by cutting benefits or the pay of other non-management staff.
- Union contracts. A collective bargaining agreement may waive the requirement if it says so in clear terms.
- Nonprofits are covered.
What the studies cover, and what they do not
No independent study of the Oakland measure exists yet. Two documents are in circulation.
The county's report. In August, the Alameda County Board of Supervisors voted 3 to 2 to order an analysis of the companion measure before acting on it, and later set that measure for the March 2028 ballot. The report, by BAE Urban Economics, covers unincorporated areas such as Ashland, Cherryland and Castro Valley, not Oakland. It offers no recommendation. Among its findings:
- About 76 percent of businesses there would count as small employers.
- An estimated 15 to 24 percent of workers now earn less than the 2027 rates, and 29 to 53 percent earn less than the 2030 rates.
- Research on past minimum wage increases finds that they raise earnings for affected workers, and that businesses respond with a mix of modest changes to prices, staffing, productivity and profits. The report adds that effects vary widely by industry and by business.
- Because the wage would be well above neighboring jurisdictions', the report says employers in the unincorporated area would face "a competitive disadvantage in terms of business retention and attraction," and it flags possible job losses for workers with less formal education.
- Black and Hispanic workers in the area are less likely than white workers to earn enough to cover a basic household budget, and the report says workers of color "stand to benefit significantly."
- The county government's own costs would rise by an estimated $32.9 million to $34.3 million a year.
The proponents' report. The coalition behind the measure points to a study from Movement Economics. Its lead author, Sarah Thomason, told The San Francisco Standard that the study assumes employers pass their added costs on to customers. The Standard reported that it projects slightly higher prices and little effect on inflation or jobs.
A report ordered by the Oakland council would be the first public analysis of the city's own measure.
Who is saying what
The measure was brought by the Living Wage for All coalition, which includes One Fair Wage, the Black Organizing Project, Trabajadores Unidos Workers United and United Auto Workers Region 6. Keala Uchoa of the Black Organizing Project told KALW that the cost of living in Oakland is "astronomical."
Business owners quoted so far are not of one mind. Nigel Jones, who owns the restaurant Calabash, told the Standard he supports the goal but "we can't afford it today." Anna Meng, who owns the café Ultimate Grounds, told the Standard, "It's too much," and said she might have to cut staff.
An opposition campaign, Stop the Grocery Tax, is asking the council to order a study and send the measure to voters. The Standard reports that it is backed by the Americans for Opportunity political action committee. The measure sets a wage. It does not create a tax.
How to weigh in
The council meets on December 1. The meeting, its agenda packet and the full text of the measure will be on the city's meeting calendar. Residents, workers and business owners can file a written comment there (the city closes online comments 24 hours before a meeting), speak in person or by video, or write to their councilmember.
Owners with hourly staff: the most useful thing you can bring is your own numbers. How many employees you have, which schedule you would fall under, and what each step would mean for your payroll and your prices.
SFBAYHCC has taken no position on this measure. We will report what the council decides.
